こういう迷文を放置するから、人が死ぬのだ。
とくに火山学の専門知識がなくても、この文章の破綻は多くのひとに理解できる
ものと思う。
彼の地でのセントへレンズ文章にあらわれた隙のない合理性と論理性をみよ。考
えられること、言えること、そして限界を、必要かつ十分に述べている。読者に
過度の期待を与えることがなく、失望を与えることもない。
1744. 2004年09月30日 07時23分33秒 投稿：早川
セントへレンズ。
彼我の差は大きい。
観測システムへの予算投入の差だけではないように思う。
> ************************
> Mount St. Helens update
> ************************
> U.S. Geological Survey, Vancouver, Washington
> University of Washington, Pacific Northwest Seismograph Network, Seattle,
> Washington
>
> Mount St. Helens Volcano Advisory (Alert Level Two)
> September 29, 2004 10:40A.M., PDT
>
> Over night, seismic activity at Mount St. Helens has accelerated significantly,
> which increases our level of concern that current unrest could culminate in an
> eruption. We are increasing the alert level to the second of three levels,
> which is similar to Color Code Orange of the alert system used by the Alaska
> Volcano Observatory and analogous totheNational Weather Service’s hazardwatch.
> Earthquakes are occurring at about four per minute. The largest events are
> approaching Magnitude 2.5 and they are becoming more frequent. All are still at
> shallow levels in and below the lava dome that grew in the crater between 1980
> and 1986. This suggests that the ongoing intense earthquake activity has
> weakened the dome, increasing the likelihood ofexplosions or perhaps the
> extrusion of lava from the dome.
>
> The cause and outcome of the accelerating unrest is uncertain. Explosions from
> the lava dome could occur suddenly and without further warning. During such
> explosions the dome and crater floor are at greatest risk from ballistic
> projectiles, but the rim of the crater and flanks of the volcano could also be
> at risk. Explosions would also be expected to produce ash clouds that rise
> several thousand feet above the crater rim and drift downwind. During today,
> wind forecasts from the National Weather Service, combined with eruption
> models, show that ash clouds will move in a southeasterly direction and could
> dust areas tens of miles or more from the volcano with ash. Landslides and
> debris flows from the crater that are large enough to reach the Pumice Plain
> are also possible. If the current unrest is being driven by a small slug of
> magma at shallow depth, extrusion of lava could also occur. At present there is
> no evidence that new gas-rich magma has ascended to shallow levels and could
> generate a large sustained eruption. But we are being especially vigilant to
> become aware of such evidence should it appear.
>
> We continue to monitor the situation closely and will issue additional updates
> as warranted, whether activity escalates or returns to background levels.
>
> Daily updates of earthquake data and other information can be found on the
> WORLD WIDE WEB at URL:
>
> http://vulcan.wr.usgs.gov/Volcanoes/MSH/CurrentActivity
> (CVO Menu - Monthly Summaries and Updates) |
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